Bain & Company, together with Altagamma, values the luxury market that closes 2025 at around EUR 1.44 trillion. It is almost identical to the previous year. Personal luxury goods reach EUR 358 billion, slightly below the EUR 369 billion recorded in 2023 and the EUR 364 billion in 2024. No crisis. No collapse. Simply a slowdown after an exceptional decade. And slowdowns change the internal logic of an industry far more than a surge ever does.
When growth is no longer driven by momentum, everything becomes more selective. Consumers shift their spending towards experiences, travel, hospitality and wellbeing rather than additional products. Brands face tighter margins and start reviewing how and where they invest. This is not a cyclical fluctuation but a structural shift. And travel retail will feel it more than other channels because it depends on brand commitment and brand capital to function.
When growth is no longer driven by momentum, everything becomes more selective.
If luxury enters 2026 without the artificial post pandemic acceleration, then travel retail cannot expect another year where growth arrives by default. Brands will approach negotiations with a new discipline. Visibility will no longer justify openings. CAPEX will no longer be agreed lightly. And fee structures designed for a market that expanded by inertia will no longer be accepted as if unchanged conditions could still apply. When the market stabilises, mathematics replaces enthusiasm. And mathematics always wins.
This creates a very different 2026. Selection will work on both sides. Brands will allocate investments only where volumes, conditions and commercial clusters make sense. Airports, on the other hand, will need to understand which categories will continue to deliver value and which will not. Bain & Company points out that several traditional segments, including luxury automotive and parts of the collectible sectors, have contracted in 2025, while areas linked to experiences and value for money have shown greater resilience. In an airport environment, this redistribution of value will influence every decision.
The core issue is simple. The relationship between airports and brands cannot continue on assumptions built during years of expansion. MAG levels and royalty expectations that became standard over the last decade will now face pressure. With a stable market and no volume driven tailwind, brands cannot absorb aggressive commercial conditions. This will redefine discussions, expectations and outcomes. Not because brands have become harder negotiators, but because the context forces a different approach.
Brands will allocate investments only where volumes, conditions and commercial clusters make sense. Airports, on the other hand, will need to understand which categories will continue to deliver value and which will not.
For travel retail, 2026 will not be an expansion year. It will be an alignment year. A moment to accept that value must be built jointly and cannot be extracted unilaterally. Bain & Company forecasts medium term growth between 4 per cent and 6 per cent a year, but this growth will not materialise through outdated models. It will come from a new balance, more realistic and more sustainable, aligned with what today’s customers actually want.
If the sector reads this stability with clarity, it can correct distortions that have been ignored for too long. If it does not, stability will rapidly turn into stagnation. And it will not take another report to understand why.